As the more observant of you might have noticed, there is been a period of quiet for this newsletter. I’ve been on holiday. We left the torrential rain in the Swiss Alps and drove down to Tuscany and Elba, where it was hot. After the last 18 months I was exhausted so I took a pile of books that I had been meaning to read and sat and read things printed on paper, taking time to cool off in the sea and ate exceptional seafood, drank lovely local wine and realised that although I think I live in the most beautiful place in the world sometimes variety is good.
I’m now back in the cold, wet Engadin ploughing through all the things that were waiting for my return. There are a lot of them.
One of the books I read was Radical Uncertainty
, but John Kay and Mervyn King. Some books I enjoy frankly because they support my world-view. This was not one of them, though I’m very glad that I got through it’s 450 days in a few days on the beach. It discusses a class of events where probability is unknowable, either because the event hasn’t occurred before or where the ‘model’ wouldn’t be stable. Most People Analytics problems could probably fall into this category. It’s a great read though it hasn’t completely converted me - the article by Guido W. Imbens in the ‘for the analysts’ section probably reflects my world-view better.
Next week school starts again in Switzerland - hopefully there will be no need for a further pause for this newsletter.